El apoyo social a las políticas públicas en épocas de crisis: preferencias de gasto público durante la pandemia y la Gran Recesión
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24965/gapp.11108Palabras clave:
Preferencias políticas, actitudes hacia el gasto, políticas sociales, pandemia, Gran RecesiónResumen
¿Qué impacto han tenido las dos crisis económicas recientes en las preferencias de política pública de los ciudadanos? Durante la Gran Recesión, las respuestas gubernamentales se focalizaron en la implantación de medidas de austeridad, mientras que durante la emergencia de la COVID-19, que implicó la interrupción de la actividad económica, se han orientado hacia un incremento sin precedentes del presupuesto para atender con urgencia las necesidades colectivas. Estos dos contextos proporcionan un escenario idóneo para investigar los cambios de la opinión pública en coyunturas críticas. En este sentido, el artículo examina la evolución de las preferencias de política pública de los españoles desde el inicio de la recesión de 2008, centrándose en el período de la pandemia. Para ello se analizan las actitudes hacia el gasto público en seis áreas esenciales, a partir de los datos de encuestas realizadas entre 2005 y 2022. Los resultados sugieren que las preferencias de gasto cambian significativamente en estas situaciones, al menos a corto plazo, y que la sociedad apoya el aumento del presupuesto, aunque establece prioridades entre las políticas públicas. Además, se observa que estas prioridades de gasto han variado entre la Gran Recesión y la crisis sanitaria. Finalmente, se pone de manifiesto que se ha producido cierta polarización en función de la clase social y de la orientación ideológica.
Descargas
Citas
Ahlquist, J., Copelovitch, M. y Walter, S. (2020). The political consequences of external economic shocks: Evidence from Poland. American Journal of Political Science, 64(4), 904-920. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12503
Alesina, A., Favero, C. y Giavazzi, F. (2019). Effects of austerity: Expenditure –and tax– based approaches. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(2), 141-162. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.2.141
Altiparmakis, A., Bojar, A., Brouard, S., Foucault, M., Kriesi, H. y Nadeau, R. (2021). Pandemic politics: policy evaluations of government responses to COVID-19. West European Politics, 44(5-6), 1159-1179. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2021.1930754
Anderson, C. J. y Hecht, J. D. (2014). Crisis of Confidence? The dynamics of economic opinions during the Great Recession. En N. Bermeo y L. M. Bartels (eds.), Mass politics in tough times: opinions, votes and protest in the Great Recession (pp. 40-71). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199357505.003.0002
Ares, M., Bürgisser, R. y Häusermann, S. (2021). Attitudinal polarization towards the redistributive role of the state in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, 31(sup1), 41-55. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2021.1924736
Asano, T. A., Kaneko, T., Omori, S., Takamiya, S. y Taniguchi, M. (2021). Predictable crises shape public opinion: Evidence from the COVID-19 natural experiment. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 31(sup1), 311-320. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2021.1924731
Autor, D., Dorn, D., Hanson, G. y Majlesi, K. (2020). Importing political polarization? The electoral consequences of rising trade exposure. American Economic Review, 110(10), 3139-3183. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20170011
Barnes, L., Blumenau, J. y Lauderdale, B. E. (2022). Measuring attitudes toward public spending using a multivariate tax summary experiment. American Journal of Political Science, 66(1), 205-221. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12643
Bellani, L. y Scervini, F. (2020). Heterogeneity in preferences for redistribution and public spending: A cross-country analysis. European Journal of Political Economy, 63, 101890. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2020.101890
Bermeo, N. y Bartels, L. M. (eds.) (2014). Mass politics in tough times: Opinions, votes and protest in the Great Recession. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199357505.001.0001
Blekesaune, M. (2013). Economic strain and public support for redistribution: A comparative analysis of 28 European countries. Journal of Social Policy, 42(1), 57-72. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0047279412000748
Blumenau, J., Hicks, T., Jacobs, A., Matthews, S. y O’Grady, T. (2021). Testing Negative: The non-consequences of COVID-19 on mass ideology [Public Opinion and Voting Behavior - Working Paper]. APSA Preprints. https://doi.org/10.33774/apsa-2021-qpczc
Bol, D., Giani, M., Blais, A. y Loewen, P. J. (2021). The effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on political support: Some good news for democracy? European Journal of Political Research, 60(2), 497-505. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12401
Bremer, B. y Bürgisser, R. (2022). Public opinion on welfare state recalibration in times of austerity: Evidence from survey experiments. Political Science Research and Methods, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2021.78
Breznau, N. (2021). The welfare state and risk perceptions: The novel Coronavirus pandemic and public concern in 70 countries. European Societies, 23(sup1), 33-46. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616696.2020.1793215
Brooks, C. y Manza, J. (2013). A broken public? Americans’ responses to the Great Recession. American Sociological Review, 78(5), 727-748. https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122413498255
Brunner, E., Ross, S. L y Washington, E. (2011). Economics and policy preferences: causal evidence of the impact of economic conditions on support for redistribution and other ballot proposals. Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(3), pp. 888-906. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00088
Busemeyer, M. R. (2021). Financing the welfare state in times of extreme crisis: Public support for health care spending during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. Journal of European Public Policy, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2021.1977375
Calzada, I. y Del Pino, E. (2013). Algo cambia, algo permanece: los españoles ante el gasto público, el gasto social y los impuestos durante la crisis (2008-2012). Presupuesto y Gasto Público, 71, 171-191. https://www.ief.es/docs/destacados/publicaciones/revistas/pgp/71_10.pdf
Calzada, I. y Del Pino, E. (2016). Actitudes ante la redistribución: ¿cómo ha afectado la crisis? Revista Española del Tercer Sector, 33, 65-90. https://digital.csic.es/handle/10261/185703
Calzada, I. y Del Pino, E. (2018). El peso de la opinión pública en las decisiones de ajuste del Estado del bienestar: el caso de España entre 2008 y 2017. En F. Camas y Ubasart, G. (dirs.), Manual del Estado del bienestar y las políticas sociolaborales (pp. 297-321). Huygens.
Caughey, D., O’Grady, T. y Warshaw, C. (2019). Policy ideology in European mass publics, 1981-2016. American Political Science Review, 113(3), 674-693. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000157
Cavaillé, C. y Trump, K.-S. (2015). The two facets of social policy preferences. The Journal of Politics, 77(1), 146-160. https://doi.org/10.1086/678312
Cicuéndez, R. (2018). El gasto público y los impuestos desde la perspectiva del ciudadano: análisis de las actitudes y preferencias de los españoles. Instituto Nacional de Administración Pública. https://www.libreriavirtuali.com/inicio/El-gasto-p%C3%BAblico-y-los-impuestos-desde-la-perspectiva-del-ciudadano-p101143369
Cicuéndez, R. (2021). Opinión pública y políticas públicas: la sensibilidad de los ciudadanos y la receptividad de los gobiernos en España. Revista del CLAD Reforma y Democracia, 80, 109-148. https://clad.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/080-04-C.pdf
Curtice, J. (2020). Will Covid-19 change attitudes towards the Welfare State? IPPR Progressive Review, 27(1), 93-104. https://doi.org/10.1111/newe.12185
Daniele, G., Martinangeli, A. F., Passarelli, F., Sas, W. y Windsteiger, L. (2020). Wind of change? Experimental survey evidence on the COVID-19 shock and socio-political attitudes in Europe (Working Paper, 2020-10). Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3671674
De Vries, R., Baumberg, B., Scullion, L., Summers, K. y Edmiston, D. (2021). Solidarity in a crisis? Trends in attitudes to benefits during COVID-19. Social Policy & Administration, 55, 280-294.
Del Pino, E., Ramos, J. A. y Hernández-Moreno, J. (2016). Las políticas de consolidación fiscal y sus efectos en la naturaleza del Estado de bienestar español durante la Gran Recesión. Panorama Social, 22, 153-166. https://www.funcas.es/articulos/las-politicas-de-consolidacion-fiscal-y-sus-efectos-en-la-naturaleza-del-estado-de-bienestar-espanol-durante-la-gran-recesion/
Diamond, P. y Lodge, G. (2013). Welfare States after the crisis: Changing public attitudes. Policy Network Paper. https://www.ippr.org/files/images/media/files/publication/2013/01/Welfare%20States%20after%20the%20Crisis_10272.pdf
Ebbinghaus, B., Lehner, L. y Naumann, E. (2022). Welfare state support during the COVID-19 pandemic: Change and continuity in public attitudes towards social policies in Germany. European Policy Analysis, 8(3), 297-311. https://doi.org/10.1002/epa2.1152
Erikson, R. S., MacKuen, M. B. y Stimson, J. A. (2002). The macro polity. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139086912
Ervasti, H., Andersen, J. G. y Hjerm, M. (2013). Economic downturns and public support for the Welfare State. 20th CES Conference Amsterdam.
Feldman, S. y Johnston, C. (2014). Understanding the determinants of political ideology: Implications of structural complexity. Political Psychology, 35(3), 337-358. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12055
Fernández-Albertos, J. y Kuo, A. (2016). Economic hardship and policy preferences in the eurozone periphery: Evidence from Spain. Comparative Political Studies, 49(7), 874-906. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414016633224
Ferragina, E. y Zola, A. (2021). The end of austerity as common sense? An experimental analysis of public opinion shifts and class dynamics during the COVID-19 crisis. New Political Economy, 27(2), 329-346. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2021.1952560
Fisman, R., Jakiela, P. y Kariv, S. (2015). How did distributional preferences change during the Great Recession? Journal of Public Economics, 128, 84-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2015.06.001
Foremny, D., Sorribas-Navarro, P. y Vall, J. (2020). Living at the Peak: Health and public finance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Paper SSRN. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3578483
Forma, P. (2002). Does economic hardship lead to polarization of opinions towards the Welfare State? Journal of Social Policy, 31(2), 187-206. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0047279401006596
Giger, N. y Nelson, M. (2013). The Welfare State or the economy? Preferences, constituencies, and strategies for retrenchment. European Sociological Review, 29(5), 1083-1094. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcs082
Giuliano, P. y Spilimbergo, A. (2014). Growing up in a recession. Review of Economic Studies, 81(2), 787-817. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt040
Häusermann, S., Ares, M., Enggist, M. y Pinggera, M. (2020). Mass public attitudes on social policy priorities and reforms in Western Europe [Working Paper Series, 1/20]. Welfarepriorities. http://welfarepriorities.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/HausermannEtal2020.pdf
Hübscher, E., Sattler, T. y Wagner, T. (2021). Voter responses to fiscal austerity. British Journal of Political Science, 51(4), 1751-1760. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123420000320
Kam, C. D. y Nam, Y. (2008). Reaching out or pulling back: Macroeconomic conditions and public support for social welfare spending. Political Behavior, 30, 223-258. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-007-9048-3
Knotz, C. M., Gandenberger, M. K., Fossati, F. y Bonoli, G. (2022). A recast framework for welfare deservingness perceptions. Social Indicators Research, 159, 927-943. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-021-02774-9
Kumlin, S., Goerres, A. y Spies, D. C. (2021). Public attitudes. En D. Béland, K. J. Morgan, H. Obinger y C. Pierson (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of the Welfare State (pp. 329-344). Oxford University Press.
Laenen, T., y Van Oorschot, W. (2020). Change or continuity in Europeans’ welfare attitudes? En T. Laenen, B. Meuleman y W. Van Oorschot (eds.), Welfare State legitimacy in times of crisis and austerity: Between continuity and change (pp. 249-266). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781788976305.00026
Lee, S. K. (2022). Conflicting dynamics of public attitudes toward austerity: Evidence from Europe (2010-2011). Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1080/14782804.2022.2059655
Margalit, Y. (2013). Explaining social policy preferences: Evidence from the Great Recession. American Political Science Review, 107(1), 80-103. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055412000603
Margalit, Y. (2019). Political responses to economic shocks. Annual Review of Political Science, 22(1), 277-295. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050517-110713
Martén, L. (2019). Demand for redistribution: individuals’ response to economic setbacks. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 121(1), 225-242. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12276
Marx, P. y Schumacher, G. (2016). The effect of economic change and elite framing on support for welfare state retrenchment: A survey experiment. Journal of European Social Policy, 26(1), 20-31. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958928715621711
Miyar-Busto, M. y Mato-Díaz, F. J. (2021). Salud y economía en Europa: la opinión pública frente a la pandemia. Panorama Social, 33, 163-176. https://www.funcas.es/articulos/salud-y-economia-en-europa-la-opinion-publica-frente-a-la-pandemia/
Naumann, E., Buss, C. y Bähr, J. (2016). How unemployment experience affects support for the welfare state: A real panel approach. European Sociological Review, 32(1), 81-92. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcv094
Neimanns, E., Busemeyer, M. R. y Garritzmann, J. L. (2018). How popular are social investment policies really? Evidence from a survey experiment in eight western European countries. European Sociological Review, 34(3), 238-253. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcy008
O’Grady, T. (2019). How do economic circumstances determine preferences? Evidence from long-run panel data. British Journal of Political Science, 49(4), 1381-1406. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123417000242
Orton, M. y Sarkar, S. (2022). COVID-19 and (mis)understanding public attitudes to social security: Re-setting debate. Critical Social Policy. https://doi.org/10.1177/02610183221091553
Reeskens, T., Muis, Q., Sieben, I., Vandecasteele, L., Luijkx, R. y Halman, L. (2021). Statability or change of public opinion and values during the coronavirus crisis? Exploring Dutch longitudinal panel data. European Societies, 23(sup1), 153-171. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616696.2020.1821075
Rehm, P. (2016). Risk inequality and Welfare States: Social policy preferences, development, and dynamics. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316257777
Rudolph, T. J. y Evans, J. (2005). Political trust, ideology, and public support for government spending. American Journal of Political Science, 49(3), 660-671. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2005.00148.x
Rueda, D. y Stegmueller, D. (2019). Who wants what? Redistribution preferences in comparative perspective. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108681339
Soroka, S. N. y Wlezien, C. (2010). Degrees of Democracy: Politics, public opinion and policy. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511804908
Stevenson, R. T. (2001). The economy and policy mood: A fundamental dynamic of democratic politics? American Journal of Political Science, 45(3), 620-633. https://doi.org/10.2307/2669242
Svallfors, S. (2012). Welfare States and welfare attitudes. En S. Svallfors (ed.), Contested Welfare States: Welfare attitudes in Europe and beyond (pp. 1-24). Stanford University Press. https://doi.org/10.11126/stanford/9780804782524.003.0001
Taylor-Gooby, P. (2001). Sustaining state welfare in hard times: Who will foot the bill? Journal of European Social Policy, 11(2), 133-147. https://doi.org/10.1177/095892870101100203
Vallespín, F. (2021). Consecuencias políticas de la pandemia. Un primer acercamiento. En E. del Pino y J. Subirats (coords.), Las Administraciones ante los riesgos sociales y globales (pp. 13-30). Instituto Nacional de Administración Pública.
Van de Walle, S. y Jilke, S. (2014). Savings in public services after the crisis: A multilevel analysis of public preferences in the EU-27. International Review of Administrative Sciences, 80(3), 597-618. https://doi.org/10.1177/0020852313517994
Van Oorschot, V., Laenen, T., Roosma, F. y Meuleman, B. (2022). Recent advances in understanding welfare attitudes in Europe. En K. Nelson, R. Nieuwenhuis y M. Yerkes (eds.), Social Policy in Changing European Societies (pp. 202-217). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781802201710.00021
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2022 Gestión y Análisis de Políticas Públicas
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial 4.0.