Social support for public policies in times of crisis: public spending preferences during the pandemic and the Great Recession

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24965/gapp.11108

Keywords:

Political preferences, attitudes toward public spending, social policies, pandemic, Great Recession

Abstract

What impact have the two recent economic crises had on citizens’ public policy preferences? During the Great Recession government responses focused on the adoption of strict austerity measures while during the COVID-19 pandemic, which has brought economic activity to a halt, have been oriented towards an unprecedented increase in the budget to immediately address collective needs. These two contexts provide an ideal setting for research on changes in public opinion at critical junctures. In this regard, the article examines the evolution of Spaniards’ public policy preferences since the onset of the 2008 recession, focusing on the period of the pandemic. To this end, attitudes towards public spending in six essential areas are analyzed, based on survey data from 2005 to 2022. The results suggest that spending preferences change significantly in these situations, at least in the short term, and that society supports increased expenditures, although it establishes priorities among public policies. Moreover, these spending priorities are found to have shifted between the Great Recession and the health crisis. Finally, it has been found that there has been some polarization along class and ideological lines.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Ruth Cicuéndez Santamaría, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos (España – Spain)

Doctora en Ciencia Política por la Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Profesora Titular de Universidad (Interina) del Área de Ciencia Política y de la Administración en la URJC. Pertenece al grupo de investigación de alto rendimiento en Buena Gobernanza de las Instituciones Públicas y Privadas de la URJC. Sus investigaciones se centran en la opinión pública sobre Estado de Bienestar y políticas públicas, y en las actitudes hacia el gasto público y los impuestos.

References

Ahlquist, J., Copelovitch, M. y Walter, S. (2020). The political consequences of external economic shocks: Evidence from Poland. American Journal of Political Science, 64(4), 904-920. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12503

Alesina, A., Favero, C. y Giavazzi, F. (2019). Effects of austerity: Expenditure –and tax– based approaches. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(2), 141-162. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.2.141

Altiparmakis, A., Bojar, A., Brouard, S., Foucault, M., Kriesi, H. y Nadeau, R. (2021). Pandemic politics: policy evaluations of government responses to COVID-19. West European Politics, 44(5-6), 1159-1179. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2021.1930754

Anderson, C. J. y Hecht, J. D. (2014). Crisis of Confidence? The dynamics of economic opinions during the Great Recession. En N. Bermeo y L. M. Bartels (eds.), Mass politics in tough times: opinions, votes and protest in the Great Recession (pp. 40-71). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199357505.003.0002

Ares, M., Bürgisser, R. y Häusermann, S. (2021). Attitudinal polarization towards the redistributive role of the state in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, 31(sup1), 41-55. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2021.1924736

Asano, T. A., Kaneko, T., Omori, S., Takamiya, S. y Taniguchi, M. (2021). Predictable crises shape public opinion: Evidence from the COVID-19 natural experiment. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 31(sup1), 311-320. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2021.1924731

Autor, D., Dorn, D., Hanson, G. y Majlesi, K. (2020). Importing political polarization? The electoral consequences of rising trade exposure. American Economic Review, 110(10), 3139-3183. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20170011

Barnes, L., Blumenau, J. y Lauderdale, B. E. (2022). Measuring attitudes toward public spending using a multivariate tax summary experiment. American Journal of Political Science, 66(1), 205-221. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12643

Bellani, L. y Scervini, F. (2020). Heterogeneity in preferences for redistribution and public spending: A cross-country analysis. European Journal of Political Economy, 63, 101890. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2020.101890

Bermeo, N. y Bartels, L. M. (eds.) (2014). Mass politics in tough times: Opinions, votes and protest in the Great Recession. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199357505.001.0001

Blekesaune, M. (2013). Economic strain and public support for redistribution: A comparative analysis of 28 European countries. Journal of Social Policy, 42(1), 57-72. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0047279412000748

Blumenau, J., Hicks, T., Jacobs, A., Matthews, S. y O’Grady, T. (2021). Testing Negative: The non-consequences of COVID-19 on mass ideology [Public Opinion and Voting Behavior - Working Paper]. APSA Preprints. https://doi.org/10.33774/apsa-2021-qpczc

Bol, D., Giani, M., Blais, A. y Loewen, P. J. (2021). The effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on political support: Some good news for democracy? European Journal of Political Research, 60(2), 497-505. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12401

Bremer, B. y Bürgisser, R. (2022). Public opinion on welfare state recalibration in times of austerity: Evidence from survey experiments. Political Science Research and Methods, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2021.78

Breznau, N. (2021). The welfare state and risk perceptions: The novel Coronavirus pandemic and public concern in 70 countries. European Societies, 23(sup1), 33-46. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616696.2020.1793215

Brooks, C. y Manza, J. (2013). A broken public? Americans’ responses to the Great Recession. American Sociological Review, 78(5), 727-748. https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122413498255

Brunner, E., Ross, S. L y Washington, E. (2011). Economics and policy preferences: causal evidence of the impact of economic conditions on support for redistribution and other ballot proposals. Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(3), pp. 888-906. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00088

Busemeyer, M. R. (2021). Financing the welfare state in times of extreme crisis: Public support for health care spending during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. Journal of European Public Policy, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2021.1977375

Calzada, I. y Del Pino, E. (2013). Algo cambia, algo permanece: los españoles ante el gasto público, el gasto social y los impuestos durante la crisis (2008-2012). Presupuesto y Gasto Público, 71, 171-191. https://www.ief.es/docs/destacados/publicaciones/revistas/pgp/71_10.pdf

Calzada, I. y Del Pino, E. (2016). Actitudes ante la redistribución: ¿cómo ha afectado la crisis? Revista Española del Tercer Sector, 33, 65-90. https://digital.csic.es/handle/10261/185703

Calzada, I. y Del Pino, E. (2018). El peso de la opinión pública en las decisiones de ajuste del Estado del bienestar: el caso de España entre 2008 y 2017. En F. Camas y Ubasart, G. (dirs.), Manual del Estado del bienestar y las políticas sociolaborales (pp. 297-321). Huygens.

Caughey, D., O’Grady, T. y Warshaw, C. (2019). Policy ideology in European mass publics, 1981-2016. American Political Science Review, 113(3), 674-693. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000157

Cavaillé, C. y Trump, K.-S. (2015). The two facets of social policy preferences. The Journal of Politics, 77(1), 146-160. https://doi.org/10.1086/678312

Cicuéndez, R. (2018). El gasto público y los impuestos desde la perspectiva del ciudadano: análisis de las actitudes y preferencias de los españoles. Instituto Nacional de Administración Pública. https://www.libreriavirtuali.com/inicio/El-gasto-p%C3%BAblico-y-los-impuestos-desde-la-perspectiva-del-ciudadano-p101143369

Cicuéndez, R. (2021). Opinión pública y políticas públicas: la sensibilidad de los ciudadanos y la receptividad de los gobiernos en España. Revista del CLAD Reforma y Democracia, 80, 109-148. https://clad.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/080-04-C.pdf

Curtice, J. (2020). Will Covid-19 change attitudes towards the Welfare State? IPPR Progressive Review, 27(1), 93-104. https://doi.org/10.1111/newe.12185

Daniele, G., Martinangeli, A. F., Passarelli, F., Sas, W. y Windsteiger, L. (2020). Wind of change? Experimental survey evidence on the COVID-19 shock and socio-political attitudes in Europe (Working Paper, 2020-10). Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3671674

De Vries, R., Baumberg, B., Scullion, L., Summers, K. y Edmiston, D. (2021). Solidarity in a crisis? Trends in attitudes to benefits during COVID-19. Social Policy & Administration, 55, 280-294.

Del Pino, E., Ramos, J. A. y Hernández-Moreno, J. (2016). Las políticas de consolidación fiscal y sus efectos en la naturaleza del Estado de bienestar español durante la Gran Recesión. Panorama Social, 22, 153-166. https://www.funcas.es/articulos/las-politicas-de-consolidacion-fiscal-y-sus-efectos-en-la-naturaleza-del-estado-de-bienestar-espanol-durante-la-gran-recesion/

Diamond, P. y Lodge, G. (2013). Welfare States after the crisis: Changing public attitudes. Policy Network Paper. https://www.ippr.org/files/images/media/files/publication/2013/01/Welfare%20States%20after%20the%20Crisis_10272.pdf

Ebbinghaus, B., Lehner, L. y Naumann, E. (2022). Welfare state support during the COVID-19 pandemic: Change and continuity in public attitudes towards social policies in Germany. European Policy Analysis, 8(3), 297-311. https://doi.org/10.1002/epa2.1152

Erikson, R. S., MacKuen, M. B. y Stimson, J. A. (2002). The macro polity. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139086912

Ervasti, H., Andersen, J. G. y Hjerm, M. (2013). Economic downturns and public support for the Welfare State. 20th CES Conference Amsterdam.

Feldman, S. y Johnston, C. (2014). Understanding the determinants of political ideology: Implications of structural complexity. Political Psychology, 35(3), 337-358. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12055

Fernández-Albertos, J. y Kuo, A. (2016). Economic hardship and policy preferences in the eurozone periphery: Evidence from Spain. Comparative Political Studies, 49(7), 874-906. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414016633224

Ferragina, E. y Zola, A. (2021). The end of austerity as common sense? An experimental analysis of public opinion shifts and class dynamics during the COVID-19 crisis. New Political Economy, 27(2), 329-346. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2021.1952560

Fisman, R., Jakiela, P. y Kariv, S. (2015). How did distributional preferences change during the Great Recession? Journal of Public Economics, 128, 84-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2015.06.001

Foremny, D., Sorribas-Navarro, P. y Vall, J. (2020). Living at the Peak: Health and public finance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Paper SSRN. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3578483

Forma, P. (2002). Does economic hardship lead to polarization of opinions towards the Welfare State? Journal of Social Policy, 31(2), 187-206. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0047279401006596

Giger, N. y Nelson, M. (2013). The Welfare State or the economy? Preferences, constituencies, and strategies for retrenchment. European Sociological Review, 29(5), 1083-1094. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcs082

Giuliano, P. y Spilimbergo, A. (2014). Growing up in a recession. Review of Economic Studies, 81(2), 787-817. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt040

Häusermann, S., Ares, M., Enggist, M. y Pinggera, M. (2020). Mass public attitudes on social policy priorities and reforms in Western Europe [Working Paper Series, 1/20]. Welfarepriorities. http://welfarepriorities.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/HausermannEtal2020.pdf

Hübscher, E., Sattler, T. y Wagner, T. (2021). Voter responses to fiscal austerity. British Journal of Political Science, 51(4), 1751-1760. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123420000320

Kam, C. D. y Nam, Y. (2008). Reaching out or pulling back: Macroeconomic conditions and public support for social welfare spending. Political Behavior, 30, 223-258. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-007-9048-3

Knotz, C. M., Gandenberger, M. K., Fossati, F. y Bonoli, G. (2022). A recast framework for welfare deservingness perceptions. Social Indicators Research, 159, 927-943. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-021-02774-9

Kumlin, S., Goerres, A. y Spies, D. C. (2021). Public attitudes. En D. Béland, K. J. Morgan, H. Obinger y C. Pierson (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of the Welfare State (pp. 329-344). Oxford University Press.

Laenen, T., y Van Oorschot, W. (2020). Change or continuity in Europeans’ welfare attitudes? En T. Laenen, B. Meuleman y W. Van Oorschot (eds.), Welfare State legitimacy in times of crisis and austerity: Between continuity and change (pp. 249-266). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781788976305.00026

Lee, S. K. (2022). Conflicting dynamics of public attitudes toward austerity: Evidence from Europe (2010-2011). Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1080/14782804.2022.2059655

Margalit, Y. (2013). Explaining social policy preferences: Evidence from the Great Recession. American Political Science Review, 107(1), 80-103. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055412000603

Margalit, Y. (2019). Political responses to economic shocks. Annual Review of Political Science, 22(1), 277-295. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050517-110713

Martén, L. (2019). Demand for redistribution: individuals’ response to economic setbacks. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 121(1), 225-242. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12276

Marx, P. y Schumacher, G. (2016). The effect of economic change and elite framing on support for welfare state retrenchment: A survey experiment. Journal of European Social Policy, 26(1), 20-31. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958928715621711

Miyar-Busto, M. y Mato-Díaz, F. J. (2021). Salud y economía en Europa: la opinión pública frente a la pandemia. Panorama Social, 33, 163-176. https://www.funcas.es/articulos/salud-y-economia-en-europa-la-opinion-publica-frente-a-la-pandemia/

Naumann, E., Buss, C. y Bähr, J. (2016). How unemployment experience affects support for the welfare state: A real panel approach. European Sociological Review, 32(1), 81-92. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcv094

Neimanns, E., Busemeyer, M. R. y Garritzmann, J. L. (2018). How popular are social investment policies really? Evidence from a survey experiment in eight western European countries. European Sociological Review, 34(3), 238-253. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcy008

O’Grady, T. (2019). How do economic circumstances determine preferences? Evidence from long-run panel data. British Journal of Political Science, 49(4), 1381-1406. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123417000242

Orton, M. y Sarkar, S. (2022). COVID-19 and (mis)understanding public attitudes to social security: Re-setting debate. Critical Social Policy. https://doi.org/10.1177/02610183221091553

Reeskens, T., Muis, Q., Sieben, I., Vandecasteele, L., Luijkx, R. y Halman, L. (2021). Statability or change of public opinion and values during the coronavirus crisis? Exploring Dutch longitudinal panel data. European Societies, 23(sup1), 153-171. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616696.2020.1821075

Rehm, P. (2016). Risk inequality and Welfare States: Social policy preferences, development, and dynamics. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316257777

Rudolph, T. J. y Evans, J. (2005). Political trust, ideology, and public support for government spending. American Journal of Political Science, 49(3), 660-671. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2005.00148.x

Rueda, D. y Stegmueller, D. (2019). Who wants what? Redistribution preferences in comparative perspective. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108681339

Soroka, S. N. y Wlezien, C. (2010). Degrees of Democracy: Politics, public opinion and policy. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511804908

Stevenson, R. T. (2001). The economy and policy mood: A fundamental dynamic of democratic politics? American Journal of Political Science, 45(3), 620-633. https://doi.org/10.2307/2669242

Svallfors, S. (2012). Welfare States and welfare attitudes. En S. Svallfors (ed.), Contested Welfare States: Welfare attitudes in Europe and beyond (pp. 1-24). Stanford University Press. https://doi.org/10.11126/stanford/9780804782524.003.0001

Taylor-Gooby, P. (2001). Sustaining state welfare in hard times: Who will foot the bill? Journal of European Social Policy, 11(2), 133-147. https://doi.org/10.1177/095892870101100203

Vallespín, F. (2021). Consecuencias políticas de la pandemia. Un primer acercamiento. En E. del Pino y J. Subirats (coords.), Las Administraciones ante los riesgos sociales y globales (pp. 13-30). Instituto Nacional de Administración Pública.

Van de Walle, S. y Jilke, S. (2014). Savings in public services after the crisis: A multilevel analysis of public preferences in the EU-27. International Review of Administrative Sciences, 80(3), 597-618. https://doi.org/10.1177/0020852313517994

Van Oorschot, V., Laenen, T., Roosma, F. y Meuleman, B. (2022). Recent advances in understanding welfare attitudes in Europe. En K. Nelson, R. Nieuwenhuis y M. Yerkes (eds.), Social Policy in Changing European Societies (pp. 202-217). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781802201710.00021

Published

13-07-2023

How to Cite

Cicuéndez Santamaría, R. (2023). Social support for public policies in times of crisis: public spending preferences during the pandemic and the Great Recession. Gestión Y Análisis De Políticas Públicas, (32), 45–67. https://doi.org/10.24965/gapp.11108